Provide his team with 50 years of good quality data, and Foslid says that their models can perform as well as those developed by an expert with 50 years experience. “And with less work,” he adds. “If you have good data, you can model and predict anything,” he explains, but underlines that it’s not just about feeding more and more data in. “A lot of the work on how to do this properly, as in all machine learning and AI,” he adds, “is understanding the domain.”
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Energy Quantified - Getting your analysts to the starting line
In terms of experts in their domain, it’s hard to find a more experienced team than Hugo Birkelund’s Energy Quantified, who have over 50 years of cumulative experience in energy market forecasting. With his colleagues Mikkel Sveen and Jon Moen Drange, Birkelund set out to create a service and a platform designed for, well, people like him.
As such Energy Quantified both is and isn’t a forecasting service. Yes, they provide forecasts for all manner of variables from weather to fundamentals and even river temperatures. But the real value, says Birkelund, is in the quality of the curated data that they offer, which includes historical, actuals and forecasts for every variable a market analyst might need.
It all started when Birkelund was working as an analyst, and realised the amount of time he would spend treating and formatting his data before inputting into models. “The observed weather doesn’t align with the weather forecasts,” on a technical level, he explains. “The map doesn’t match to the actual terrain!”