Interestingly, the production numbers from solar and wind generation is nearly unchanged between the years, which means that variations in the consumption is mainly covered from nuclear and the fossil fuel production methods.
It's also notable that the natural gas production is nearly unchanged during these Q2-periods, despite the varying fuel costs, which partly can be explained by the high share of price independent Combined Heat & Power (CHP) production from gas-fired plants.
Furthermore, we see how the coal-fired generation (lignite + hardcoal) dived during Q2-2020 when lower consumption reduced demand for power generation. For Q2-2021, the production from these fuel types have been reduced by nearly 20% compared to 2019 despite very similar overall consumption levels.
The 20% reduction in coal-fired production can partly be explained by the volume of coal exiting the German system, but also due to the simple fact that this generation type is now less competitive in the market because of increased fuel-costs. Significant rises in CO2 costs are another particularly unfavourable factor for the lignite plants.
For 2022, we now expect even lower share of coal-fired volumes in the German fuel mix - as more capacity will be closed down as a part of the German coal-exit plan. EQ will update you during Q3/Q4 about the capacity reductions we will see from New Year 2022.
Below, we have also produced a comparison of the power balance for June-21 vs June-20. From this, we see 12% increased consumption overall, as well as how coal-fired volumes have increased due to this recovery in demand. Conversely, natural gas levels have reduced since last year, which can be explained by the very low gas-fired costs last summer (see price-chart above).