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Energy Quantified: Energy market analysis, forecasting and more

July 19th, 2021

With energy data across Europe being difficult to source, building models to predict market movements can prove tricky. CEO of Energy Quantified by Montel, Hugo Birkelund, tells us how EQ has overcome this problem, providing fundamental forecasts and standardised data across European energy markets.

Who’s behind Energy Quantified?

Energy Quantified was set up in 2017 by Hugo Birkelund, Mikkel Sveen & Jon Moen Drange. Hugo and Mikkel are both veteran analysts, having worked together at Natsource and Point Carbon before helping Markedskraft found MKOnline, which has since become Volue Insight.

At Markedskraft we met Jon, who has an IT and development background and serves as EQ’s CTO, managing everything which helps our models and numbers sing.

In October 2019, we were joined by Eylert Ellefsen, an expert in hydrology with 19 years of experience at Wattsight and Markedskraft, who serves as EQ’s senior analyst on hydrology and climatology.

Since then, our growing team has doubled in size. Customer growth and ambitious product-plans means we are constantly on the lookout for talent too!

What was the driver for creating EQ?

Having fun with numbers and IT systems is what really makes our hearts tick. We use our extensive knowledge of power markets and energy data – from its infrastructure and market set-up, to create the best possible starting point for energy professionals who use data. In 2017 we teamed up with Montel and quickly came up with a concept for a data analysis service that complement Montel’s market leading news, data and reporting platform.

We don’t just provide all the demand and supply-side components relevant for your market, but we curate the data so it can synchronise into your workflows without any need for further formatting.

So, what does the service actually look like?

EQ provides a one stop shop for numeric data intelligence. All the data you need, from one source, on cost efficient and transparent terms. We don’t just provide all the demand and supply-side components relevant for your market, but we curate the data so it can synchronise into your workflows without any need for further formatting. We also make sure that both historical data and forecasts are updated with the smallest possible time gap between the update of the primary source and customer’s own databases.

Added to this, we monitor and keep track of changes to power market and continuously simulate the expected prices for spot market from hour 0, up to 45 days lead time. You can receive updated simulations of your power markets sensitivities, expected price spreads and simulations for expected power flows across Europe. All relevant price moving factors, like REMIT and hydrology data for example, is factored into the simulations too.

To top it up EQ simulates 40 weather years for your markets. We call it fundamental climate data.

Why can’t I just get the data direct from the source?

You can if you like. But be advised that across Europe, there are different naming conventions, definitions of data and resolution. This makes using and comparing data between countries very difficult. Thankfully, EQ has removed these obstacles, profoundly improving the efficiency with which your team can develop and operate your own systems.

When it comes down to it, we’re data scientists and ‘quants’ ourselves, so we know the value of clean, well labelled and accurate data sets. That’s why we’ve done the hard work to add, verify and continuously maintain sets of variables that are important for modelling across European electricity markets.

We’ve reconciled European data so that it’s usable without the need for complex, time-consuming work to make it compatible with modelling processes. All our data, from historical to forecasts, is instantly comparable and thus easy to integrate into any models or systems you’re using.

That means you can spend more time working on your models and predictions without having to spend the time double-checking for errors and labelling issues in your data sets.

And when you buy a subscription to a specific country or price zone you get access to all data sets for that country, rather than having to pay for individual series and variables – so you’ve got all the components you need to start running your own models.

What does the future hold for Energy Quantified?

Making the transition from a start-up, to a scale-up, EQ is busy consolidating our systems and adding more interesting content, which also means recruiting more IT staff!

In terms of ongoing projects, we will launch the second iteration of our web-platform this fall. This new platform will allow us to better present the market information to you, as well as notify you of when to look out for upcoming incidents across markets. However, best of all, the new platform will also enable you to make very advanced studies of past market incidents. Pick any past date and hour, and the system will return a comprehensive overview of the relevant market situation for demand, supply, REMIT, hydrology, flow capacity etc. We promise this will be incredibly easy to use, whilst providing all the market data you could wish to see for that particular period of time!

And lastly, we are planning to launch a data feed on a new commodity soon. I won’t go into detail here, but feel free to contact us and I will be happy to share the info with you!

You can find out more about all the services Energy Quantified by Montel has to offer here, or go ahead and sign up for a free trial.