Expected consumption growth in the Nordpool areas until 2040

This article was originally published on Energy Quantified on 25 April 2023

Energy Consumption in the Nordics

As governments, industries and businesses across the world look to decarbonise their operations, electricity is set to become the major fuel driving the energy transition.

This means that demand for electricity in the future is going to become higher than it currently is today, as Industrial manufacturers will rely more heavily on green power to run their businesses and electric cars become more common.

We have estimated all consumption sectors for each country and price zones individually. The figures we have prioritised and chosen to publish here are based on our assumptions from the different consumption sectors.

You can consider them our “best guess” of how consumption will develop over time, based on reports from external sources such as the Nordic TSO’s and the Nordic energy authorities.

The “Fit for 55” emission target from the EU is not a separate electricity system target so our consumption forecast is not directly connected to this total emission target.

However, we do assume that most of the electricity consumption growth in the Nordpool area has to be covered by new renewable or no-emission production.

Nordic consumption until 2040

The table below shows the overall Nordic consumption estimates. These numbers show us that the Nordic electricity consumption is on track to grow from about 380 TWh today, to 501 TWh by 2030, and further to 656 TWh by 2040.

The next table shows overall consumption has increased by 97 TWh since 2021. The majority of this is accounted for by an increase in power consumption by hydrogen-producers (+72 TWh) whilst transport, battery and data centre sectors also account for a notable amount of consumption growth.

The data clearly shows that hydrogen production has the potential to be a game changer for the Nordic electricity market. However, for that to happen, this growth in demand must also be matched by an equal level of growth in power production from renewable energy sources.

The above data provides a detailed overview of assumptions for the consumptions sectors in each country.

Below, you can see the future consumption estimates for each country. Whilst the overall Nordic consumption is set to increase 72% by 2040, we see significant variations between individual countries. Forecasts for Finland suggest large increases in electrical demand for the hydrogen sector. By comparison, fossil-fuel based district heating currently used in Denmark is likely to be replaced by electrical heat-pumps where possible.

New sectors like hydrogen, battery production, data centres and transport are modelled with a flat hourly profile.

This means that the hourly profiles are modified towards 2040, and peak-hours are not increasing as strongly as the general consumption growth.

The above chart shows the overall Nordic hourly consumption profiles between 2022 and 2040. Maximum peak-hour level by 2040 is set to reach about 91 GWh/h, 50% higher than the equivalent 2022 level of 60 GWh/h.

The average consumption in 2040 increases by 72% from 2022 - proving that we do not expect hourly profiles to increase as strongly as the overall consumption level.

Related article: The hourly data profiles generated for all price zones are available in our data centre

Growth in the price zones for Norway and Sweden

The figures below show our expectations for different consumption sectors on both a price zone and national level for Norway.

The equivalent energy consumption numbers for Sweden

This shows our long-term consumption forecast for the Nordic countries using our analytic data.

The consumption data is modelled in an hourly resolution for all price zones and this data is available on our prices platform.

Sources:
Statnett,  NVE, DNV (Norway and all Nordic countries)
Energimyndigheten, SVK (Sweden)
Fingrid, Finergy  (Finland)
Energistyrelsen, Energinet DK (Denmark)

Attachment – Consumption  sectors in the Nordic countries 2022 - > 2040