In the worst case scenario, where 100% of the new solar is bid in as -€500, the 2023 prices would drop by nearly €27! This would also result in 1600 hours of negative prices.
Of course this is not entirely logical, so let’s assume that 70% of the additional volume will be bid in at -€500, similar to last year. Without an intelligent bidding strategy for the new solar production, this would still drop prices by nearly €24 and result in over 1400 hours of negative prices
So what would happen if everyone bid solar generation at a price of zero when more than 4 hours of negative prices were recorded, and 70% would be bid in at -€500 by default? Even in this scenario, prices would still drop by €11 and result in around 650 hours with negative prices.
For the week of the 20th of May, we can see (below) that this would result in less additional must-sell volume and significant day-ahead price driven solar curtailments.