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Power price scenario swarms

Calculate portfolio risks, optimise asset production and create hedges with simulations made for a range of energy commodities.

Overview

Scenario Swarms calculate power price scenarios more than 1000 times to interpret the probability distribution of power prices, showing you the potential revenues and risks.

With scenarios available out as far as 2060, you receive:

Receive probability distributions for baseload prices and capture prices in annual resolution, characterised by "P-values", for example the P90 price. These key figures can refer to one year (annual P-price) or an average over several years (period P-price).

Choose from four different scenarios: Central, Tensions, Relief and GoHydrogen to form the basis for your calculations. Choose one or compare the outlook from multiple future paths.

We include follow-up time as standard to make sure you find the scenario swarms plausible and understandable.

Build revenue cases

Period pricing allows you to see which revenue levels will be reached in that percentage of scenarios. For example, Period 90 prices will reflect the revenues you can expect to achieve in 90% of the simulated scenarios - allowing you to estimate revenue cases robustly and safely.

Raise profits & lower costs

Plant owners and portfolio managers can use scenario swarms compare subsidy rates to probable forward prices, showing you the best way to sell the electricity generated by your power plant.

For procurement professionals, this also shows you the best buying strategy: should you hedge future energy costs on the futures market, or allow greater exposure to spot market prices?

Model uncertainty

Scenario swarms take into account a range of factors, such as hourly wind speed fluctuations. Based on historical values, as well as predictions of how this might change in response to global warming, we have included the necessary factors to help future-proof your revenues.

Delivery methods

Choose to have your data delivered via Excel integration or CSV, enabling you to further assess your opportunities and risks for future years.

All of our assumptions, detailed descriptions of the methodology, definitions of the key figures as well as visualisations of the results are available as a PDF file.

Any questions?

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